1. Dreaming?—By Kevin Cameron

    December 14, 2011 at 11:07 pm by Kevin Cameron

    Now and then, I wonder about the high-tech future that is said to be upon us. Any minute, I’ll be able to have a routine outpatient injection of nanobots that will enthusiastically nibble away any arteriosclerotic plaque I may have, leaving me with an athlete’s blood pressure. They won’t make any mistakes at all, such as accidentally eating away my adrenal glands or my recollections of Intermediate Algebra. Super capacitors or hyper batteries will shortly be invented by brilliant marketing guys working in one of those modest double-overhead-door units in an industrial park, so gasoline will become as quaint as buggy whips. Autonomous vehicles will seamlessly take over from the accident-prone, traffic-jamming, human-guided kind. To commute to work, we’ll just go sit in the car (which has no steering wheel or other controls), sipping coffee and reading the paper, as a vast computer network integrates our transportation requests into routes, speeds and lanes. We won’t need driving licenses, and speeding will be impossible. I can even doze and my car will let me know that I have arrived by “dinging” like the clothes washer or microwave do. Because I may in the interim have forgotten where I was going, the destination will appear on a screen along with a happy face, urging me to “have a great day.” As I take the elevator to my tasteful corner office on the 40th floor, my car will route itself to a high-density underground auto-storage facility.

    It might not be quite like that because the scheduled breakthroughs that the futurists predict actually come at their own speed or not at all. And some of the fabulous new technologies might be very expensive—not for everyone; maybe only for presidents, big-time CEOs and the Sultan of Brunei. So, I sometimes imagine a world in which some but not all of the science-fiction occurs.

    What if there is no hyper battery? It has already failed to happen on schedule once, when the state of California announced there would be millions of “zero-emitting” electric vehicles on its roads by a certain date. Didn’t happen. So, despite the present tremendous hype and the conviction that a nation that once sent men to the moon must be able to create any desired technology, what if it just remains an unsolved problem? What if electric vehicles remain expensive, short-range green curiosities? How do we go forward?

    Trolley cars and electrified rail lines have existed for a lifetime. They work very well, indeed. They are powered not by unsatisfactory batteries, taking hours to recharge, but by the national power grid. Instant power—all you want. Let’s begin by electrifying the Interstate Highway System, an action that would accomplish something that even the most avid electric-vehicle advocates never talk about: operating long-haul heavy trucking on electricity. There are nearly 50,000 miles of Interstate highways, and we are told that one-third of the nation’s driving takes place on them.

    Each vehicle will have a trolley, which picks up power from overhead conductors. We drive our limited-range battery-electric car conventionally until we get to the on-ramp, at which point up goes our trolley and we switch to mains power and automated operation (there will have to be two overhead conductors: one for power; the other for ground). At the same time, the battery in our vehicle—still necessary for travel on secondary roads—can be recharged. Billing and tolls will be automated. On the Interstate, every vehicle will move at the same speed, regulated by Federal authority. There will obviously be no passing, any more than there is on the railroads. To enable high-density highway use, vehicles will be spaced two feet apart, guided by the above-mentioned computer system. It’ll be like mass NASCAR drafting! There will be no failures because computers never fail.

    The Interstate highways are said to have cost approximately $425 billion, and 50,000 miles of electrification plus any additional 1000-megawatt power stations would surely cost a similar amount. To give meaning to that, consider that there are maybe 250,000,000 registered cars in the U.S. Replacing all of them with Chevy’s “Volt” hybrids at $40K per would cost 10 trillion dollars. We’re talking big savings here.

    Anyway, no worries. Whatever it costs, “quantitative easing” can take care of it. Remember: The printing presses in the national mint are driven by clean, variable-speed electric motors. Just dial up the rpm and anything is possible. Many thousands of new jobs will surely be created. Any extra electric power required can be generated on a traditional American free-market basis, which means our cheapest, most plentiful fuel—coal—will be used. Any other choice would clearly be government interference with free enterprise.

    Motorcycles? Sorry, vehicles too small to support a trolley would be excluded from the system.

    Am I dreaming? Or is this a nightmare?

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  2. 4 Comments »

    1. Loved it!
      Especially the electric motors on the national money printing presses though this all done with the push of a few keys then ENTER.
      More speculative articles from Mr. Cameron, please.
      He can help us all to understand that as good knowledge increases everything we do will change and many things will not be done at all.
      Long haul trucking is ready to go the way of the Google Car already with very little investment as we put them on the roads one by one.
      Our Sport may take on a decidedly retro cast- bikes like the ZX-12 (2012) have no place in the real world of street legal operation.
      It will not be possible to “live in the past” no matter how attractive that may be as rapid change will so obsolete that context there will be no place for you to live.
      As far as technology goes we have barely started. Exascale computing will be here by 2020 and these will be machines a billion times faster than today.
      TSA has little to do with terrorists and is mostly concerned with positive location and identification of ALL citizens.
      The idea that we will continue to have a driving environment where 40,000 are killes and 5-10 times as many maimed for life is out of the question especially with National Healthcare which is coming one way or the other.

      Comment by Mike Johnson — December 15, 2011 @ 1:02 am

    2. Weren’t we supposed to have flying cars by now?

      I like the idea of getting long-haul trucks off the interstates, even though their drivers are among the safest. They can piggyback on electric trains between cities. And electric busses, at least, are known to be workable, as anyone who’s spent any time in San Francisco can tell you.

      You’ve shown very clearly, and in an entertaining way, that the  electric extreme is unrealistic, at least in the near future. But sticking to the status quo is almost as unrealistic, at least in the distant future.

      Comment by Lyle Gunderson — December 17, 2011 @ 2:24 am

    3. Great read but my answer would be nightmare. That future sounds more like a prison sentence.
      Maybe, just maybe, something good has come of this set back of our economy. Its pushed this future further down the road.

      Comment by Fatfatboy — December 17, 2011 @ 5:03 pm

    4. Depends on who ya are.

      A large number of people I meet on the highway everyday don’t want to drive.  They are either absolutely afraid to pilot their vehicle with confidence, or it seems they would rather eat, talk, text, sleep, read, fight, or sing.  I think they’d enjoy the required trolley.

      Maybe, Mr. “C”, we will be boxed into this nightmare-automated future, or continue to fart along as we do now… or we take a BIG leap backward.

      My nightmare-dream is a big-time deconstruction of the ordered chaos we call Western Civilization.  The third horn of the dilemma.

      Comment by oldironnow — December 21, 2011 @ 8:07 am

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